Friday, November 11, 2011

2011 NFL Mid-Season Report Part 1/2: AFC

East: Upstart Bills or Old Fashioned Pats
After six consecutive seasons with a losing record, the Buffalo Bills are currently tied with the Patriots and Jets atop the AFC East.  But is this really the year the Bills break through and make it to the playoffs for the first time since the 1999 season?  This race will be the most intriguing race for the second half as we discover the true identity of the three franchises this season.  The Patriots haven’t been the same this season, as their defense is one of the worst in the league and lost their first home game in three years last Sunday.  The Jets, like the Cowboys, have been a disappointment this season and have no true identity.  The Bills, on the other hand, are playing their best ball since the ‘90s and are certainly a true playoff contender.  Expect the Bills and Patriots to represent the division as playoff contenders and the Jets to falter off as the season progresses.
North: Dalton and the Division Champion Bengals?
Quarterback Andy Dalton’s rookie season is headed in the direction as Sam Bradford’s last season: Offensive Rookie of the Year.  But can Dalton and his Bengals outdue Bradford’s rookie season with a playoff berth or district title?  Don’t expect one.  Dalton will continue to make his spectacular plays, but the Bengals will eventually break down.  The team is lacking in talent and is not a deep team, and has to play both the Ravens and Steelers twice.  An 8-8 or 9-7 record this season would be a stepping stone for the Bengals and their young quarterback as they continue to improve.  For the 3rd time in the past 5 seasons, both the Ravens and Steelers will clinch playoff berths, and the Bengals will miss the postseason for the second consecutive season.
South: Texans in the Playoffs: A Guarantee
Houston’s division rivals are making what looks to be the Texans’ first playoff season a joy ride.  The team has their best first half record and is on track to win at least 10 games for the first time in franchise history.  This may be the best team in the Texans’ 10 year history.  Quarterback Matt Schaub continues to excel in the Bayou City, Tight End Owen Daniels and Receiver Andre [the Giant] Johnson are two of the league’s best playmakers, and behind yet another productive season from Arian Foster, the Texans have become the third best running team in the league.  The Texans should continue to put up big numbers as they become a force throughout the playoffs.
West: Anyone Here [In the AFC West]?
Over the past decade, the NFC West, not the AFC West, was the NFL’s worst division.  Are the Super Chargers, who have won 5 division titles over the past decade, done?  After a disappointing season last year and missing the playoffs for the first time in five seasons, the Chargers were expected to rebound this season with their sixth division championship of the decade.  The team started the season fast, with a 4-1 record to start the season, but have lost four consecutive games.  The Chargers are certainly not done because they compete in the football’s weakest division, but they’ve struggled over the past month and have a tough second half.  The Raiders are surprisingly leading the division at 5-4 and appear to be headed for their first playoff appearance since their 2002 Super Bowl team.  The Chiefs, although currently a ½ game out of the division lead and were last year’s division champs, are very similar to the Chargers because not a lot has gone right for them this season.  And of course, there is the Who-Knows-Who-The-QB-is-Broncos.  Tim Tebow, named the official starter after the Broncos’ 1-4 start under Kyle Orton, is 2-1 as a starter this season, but doesn’t have a lot of weapons around him.  Expect a close race as the teams compete for the year’s division title (and possibly the second consecutive postseason with a division champ under the .500 mark).
Wild Card Story: Jets: AFC Championship Game Streak Ends
Don’t expect the New York Jets to compete for their third consecutive AFC Championship this January.  The team is currently tied atop the AFC East with the Bills and Patriots, but does it help to have Rex Ryan’s attention on participating in a future Adam Sandler film instead of on his team?  The answer is certainly “No” and his team is playing like it.  Their feared defense hasn’t been as effective and Ryan is the main cause.  The Jets are currently on a three game winning streak, but where will the season take them?  The Jets have difficult matchups against the Patriots, improved Bills, and cross-town rival Giants, so it’ll be tough for the team to make their third consecutive trip to the playoffs and the AFC Championship.     
Wild Card Story 2: The Lucky Manning Colts
Does anyone question the fact that the Colts will end up with the #1 overall pick in next April’s draft?  The team’s quarterback scenario has not worked this season as Kerry Collins and Curtis Painter have struggled in relief of Peyton’s normal role.  The Colts are the last winless team this season and have the league’s worst point differential.  As horrific as this season has been, the future of the Colts is bright.  The team is headed for the draft’s #1 overall pick and Stanford’s Andrew Luck could be the future face of the franchise.  Peyton intends to retire a Colt and would be a great mentor for Luck.  If Peyton can play next season, or the season after, he will definitely be the Colts’ quarterback.  Luck can mature and grow under Peyton and be prepared to take control when Peyton finally retires.  Although this has been a disappointing season for Colts fans, this could be the best thing to happen to them since they drafted Peyton in 1998.  Look at the 1996-1997 San Antonio Spurs. They finished the season 20-68, drafted Tim Duncan with the #1 overall pick, and went on to win four championships from 1999-2007.

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